WORKING PAPERS

Research Papers

Technical working papers and research notes on quantitative finance, capital allocation, and decision frameworks. Rigorous analysis for practitioners and researchers.

Phase 1 working paper inventory totals 8 framework papers. Open full catalog and view source trace matrix.

WORKING PAPER

Fund Quality Forecasting with Historical Data Only

From Equations to Capital Research

March 2026

A practitioner framework for fund quality classification using historical return data only. Built on a 33,030 fund universe across 25 sectors with weighted performance features and modified Sharpe style ranking logic.

TECHNICAL NOTE

Forensic Quantification of Portfolio Churning in Options Accounts

From Equations to Capital Research

March 2026

A litigation grade framework that combines cost equity ratio tests, implied volatility extraction, and Monte Carlo portfolio probability analysis to evaluate excessive trading misconduct in options portfolios.

WORKING PAPER

Hedging Discontinuous FX Risk: Evidence from the EUR CHF Floor Removal

From Equations to Capital Research

March 2026

A comparative hedge study of stop loss execution versus put option protection during the January 2015 EUR CHF shock. The analysis focuses on discontinuity risk and implementation cost under stress.

CASE STUDY

Optimal Hedging Under Liquidity Constraints: The Metallgesellschaft Lesson

From Equations to Capital Research

March 2026

A constrained hedging analysis of the 1993 Metallgesellschaft failure. The paper compares rolling hedge logic with optimal control variants and shows how funding path risk dominates terminal variance metrics.

TECHNICAL NOTE

Building Credit Risk Economic Capital in Practice

From Equations to Capital Research

March 2026

A practical implementation framework for expected credit loss, stress testing, and risk based pricing integration in institutional credit portfolios, with governance and validation constraints.

WORKING PAPER

Robust Portfolio Optimization Under Parameter Uncertainty

From Equations to Capital Research

March 2026

A synthesis of robust optimization methods for portfolio construction, including risk parity, CVaR formulations, sparse tracking, and uncertainty set controls for estimation error management.

WORKING PAPER

Infrastructure Finance Risk Sharing Framework

From Equations to Capital Research

February 2026

A framework for funded and unfunded risk participation in infrastructure finance and policy-aligned capital formation. Decomposes risk sharing structures across construction, operation, and refinancing phases with institutional governance mapping.

WORKING PAPER

Algorithmic Strategy Search Governance and Control

From Equations to Capital Research

March 2026

A framework on architecture, optimization governance, and lifecycle control for algorithmic strategy generation systems. Addresses overfitting detection, backtest integrity, deployment gates, and monitoring requirements for institutional systematic trading.

DISCLAIMER

These papers are working drafts shared for educational and research purposes. They do not constitute investment advice. All quantitative examples are illustrative. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult qualified professionals for specific investment decisions.